Will low carbon vehicle sales (e.g. electric, hydrogen, PI hybrid) be more than 50% of all car sales in the USA by 2030?
CommoditiesOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.3%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 23, 1:55 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
For the purposes of this question a low carbon vehicle can be a plugin hybrid, a purely electric vehicle, a hydrogen powered vehicle, or any other that doesn't directly generate significant amounts of carbon emissions.
- The average vehicle generates 300-400 g CO2 per mile driven so any vehicle generating less than 40g CO2 per mile driven should qualify (with the caveat that combustion-engine vehicles running on gasoline that aren't plugin hybrids will never qualify).
- Passenger vehicles as defined by BTS or closest available https://www.bts.gov/content/new-and-used-passenger-car-sales-and-leases-thousands-vehicles
- Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The >50% threshold for low carbon vehicle sales must represent an enduring shift.
- The market may resolve YES based on data from a single month or quarter if it clearly indicates an enduring trend.
- If the trend is unclear from earlier data, the creator will wait until the long-term trend is clear, even past the market's close date if necessary.
