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Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

One-OffTech Adoption14y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 84.2%

Forecasters

32

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Nov 30, 23, 5:51 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Within any single country with a population of at least 10 million people.

"Flying cars" are herein defined as vehicles which are legal to operate on the roads of the country, and which also can be operated as legal aircraft in that same country.
The two operations modes are not required to be covered by the same license.
No type certificate, production certificate, or equivalent is required (although they are expected and hoped for).
Fleet operators renting vehicles out to the public would qualify if the sales quantity is met.
An example of a "yes" resolution in the US would be a street-legal car which is also legal to fly under 14 CFR 23, 25, 27, 91, 103, or equivalent, and can be operated by anyone with a driver's license and appropriate flight certificate (or none, in the case of §103 and/or potential self-driving capability).

Open markets

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$74,750 or above99%
$73,750 or above99%
$74,500 or above99%

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Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?

160-179+26.0pt60.4%
180-199-7.5pt32.7%
200-219-9.9pt4%

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BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

$69,000 or above99%
$69,500 or above98%
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When will Apple release the iPhone 18?

Before April 2027+7.0pt68.9%
Before March 2027-3.0pt19.3%
Before February 2027+2.0pt8.4%

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New York City+68.0pt99%
Boston+46.0pt99%
Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%

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Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily

No55%
Yes45%

Total Vol: $254K
24h Vol: $250.1K

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040??: Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 10, 2026.
When does Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040? resolve?: Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
How is Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Within any single country with a population of at least 10 million people.

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