Current community forecast
Yes 66.2%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 25, 9:34 PM UTCMar 25, 29, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
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Will the mainstream parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?
- Resolves after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
- Definition of "mainstream" Parties:
- Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
- Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party) Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum
- "Majority" means collectively holding more than 50% of seats in the Bundestag
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) resolve?
- Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) is scheduled to resolve on March 25, 2029.
- How is Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will the mainstream parties still have a majority after the next German Bundestag election?