Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast3 parties 40.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 22, 25, 6:35 PM UTCMar 22, 29, 7:31 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
- Resolves to the option representing the minimum number of mainstream parties needed to form a majority coalition (>50% of Bundestag seats).
- Examples: - After the election in early 2025, the market would have resolved to "2 parties" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition was possible. - If there were an election held today that matched current polling (September 2025), the market would resolve to "the named outcome" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would not be possible, but a CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens coalition would.
- Definition of "mainstream" Parties:
- Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
- Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party) Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum