Will the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?
GeopoliticsWeatherDaily2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 91.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 26, 12:00 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the central estimate of the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature anomaly relative to the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline for the calendar year 2026.
- Primary Source: The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) official State of the Global Climate 2026 report, typically published in March or April 2027.
- The report series can be tracked via the WMO Climate Reports library.
- Resolution Rule:
- YES: If the WMO's consolidated central estimate for the 2026 global mean temperature anomaly is 1.50°C or higher relative to the 1850–1900 baseline.
