Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
WeatherDaily2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 38.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) 38.4%Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Updated 1 minute ago
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ForecastExRules
What will the global average surface air temperature anomaly for the full year 2026 be, expressed in degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline? Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive range; exactly one will resolve "Yes".
- The Primary Designated Source is the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker.
- Resolution uses the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly value reported by the tracker for the full year 2026 (timestamped after 2026).
- If the methodology changes substantially, Futuur might follow the same methodology to calculate the value for 2026.
- Otherwise, this question may be annulled.