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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Science
  3. Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

3.0% (24h)One-OffScienceWeather23y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 77%-3.0%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.1

Liquidity

$52.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

77.0% / 82.0%

Spread

6.5%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jun 5, 25, 4:45 PMJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes77%

Rules

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

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Rules

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.