Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
8.0 pts (24h)One-OffScienceWeather
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 75%-8.0pt
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$510.6
Liquidity
$5.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
75.0% / 77.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jun 5, 25, 4:45 PMJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:NASA Goddard
Institute for Space StudiesNCEIBerkeley EarthUK Met Office Hadley Centre (HadCRUT)
- At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 75% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? resolve?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
