At what temperature anomaly will global warming peak before the Earth starts cooling again?
Weather
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
2.2 degrees Celsius 8.3%Leader of 27 outcomes
2.2 degrees Celsius 8.3%Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 15, 24, 7:38 AM UTCOct 22, 24, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market will close when climate science comes to the conclusion that global warming has ended and the Earth has started cooling.
- It will resolve to the highest global surface temperature anomaly the Earth has experienced relative to 1850-1900 (in degrees Celsius, rounded to one decimal place).
- Resolution will likely occur far in the future and will be based on the most relevant scientific publications at that time.