What are the current odds for 2050 Global Temperature Anomaly X Wheat Price?

Manifold Markets prices 1.5 $7/bushel at 25.2% as of October 19, 2026.

How is 2050 Global Temperature Anomaly X Wheat Price settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Some climate doomers think it will cause mass starvation.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

1.5<GTE<2, wheat > $7/bushel 25.2%

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Stale

Jun 30, 23, 2:38 AM UTCJan 1, 51, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Some climate doomers think it will cause mass starvation.

Consider this market a tax on that bullshit.
Resolution prices will come from the last trading day of 2050.
Wheat price is adjusted for inflation.
Data source for wheat (quoted in US cents per bushel) https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ZWW00:CBOT?sa=X&window=MAX Data source for GTA (1951-1980 baseline) (called GTE in the options because of a typo) we'll use a 3-year rolling average of NASA data to make it less noisy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record Data source for inflation adjustment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL Wheat price in 2050 is multiplied by CPI_2023/CPI_2050 to convert to 2023 dollars.