Current community forecast
No 88.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJul 12, 25, 6:36 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I am 80% confident that this has occurred.
- Peer-reviewed studies making this claim will probably be necessary, but not necessarily sufficient.
- The intervention must be intentional (excludes coincidental effects of non-climate policies)
- The temperature reduction need not be expected to be repeated the following year, e.g., if the intervention was temporary.
- Learn more about climate interventions : https://climateinterventions.org/
