When will serious deployment of Solar Radiation Management (climate intervention) begin?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIt wont be done, or warming will be resolved by other means before it's ever done 27.7%Leader of 9 outcomes
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Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 23, 3:28 AM UTCJan 1, 68, 10:59 AM UTC
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Solar Radiation Management is the deployment of technology to reflect more light away from the earth for the purpose of controlling global temperature.
- I'll count it as "serious" if enough materials are being deployed that they're expected to have a combined potency of negating 30% of the temperature increase from 1990 levels.
- (This is likely to be some years after the decision to deploy is made, as artificially cooling too rapidly would likely create more problems than it solves.)
- Closing date will be extended until we know.
- Consensus among climate engineers that it cannot or should not be done would be a closing condition.
