What are the current odds for Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of November 3, 2026.

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 75%

Forecasters

142

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 43 minutes ago

Feb 19, 25, 1:33 AM UTCJan 28, 29, 3:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Basically, will Trump (or anyone else) SUCCEED in making the election very different in some way? I am talking:

Trump running again (not just try to, not just a write in campaign, actually having his name on ballot papers)
Falsified election results (on a large scale, not just localised corruption or errors with voting machines)
The election not occurring at all during 2028
I may make an exception if it's legitimately postponed, but definite no resolution if there is no election by July 4 2029
per the comments no US elections have been postponed for more than 150 years, so this is a very high bar