Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC?
EconomyOne-OffHealth & Medicine3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 98.7%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 25, 10:03 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketCPI in August
KalshiInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiRules
The 2025-26 flu season has started unusually early, driven by the H3N2 subclade K strain that emerged in summer 2025 after the season's vaccine composition was already finalized.
- This mutated strain has caused significant outbreaks in Japan, the UK, and Canada, with health officials warning it could produce the worst flu season in over a decade.
- The CDC classifies flu season severity using its Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) and tracks cumulative hospitalization rates through the FluSurv-NET surveillance system.
- A "high severity" classification is typically assigned when cumulative hospitalization rates significantly exceed historical baselines and meet specific threshold criteria.
- Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the CDC officially classifies the 2025-26 influenza season as "high severity" in any official report, press release, or surveillance summary published by June 1, 2026.
- Resolves NO if the season is classified as "low" or "moderate" severity, or if no official severity classification is issued by the resolution date.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC? resolve?
- Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The 2025-26 flu season has started unusually early, driven by the H3N2 subclade K strain that emerged in summer 2025 after the season's vaccine composition was already finalized.