Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 25, 8:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The market resolves YES if, at any time before 1 January 2027, any of the following index providers formally classifies European Union–issued debt as sovereign debt:
- Bloomberg Index Services Limited (including Bloomberg/Barclays fixed-income index classifications)
- FTSE Russell (including classifications relevant for the World Government Bond Index and related benchmarks)
- ICE Data Indices
- A classification counts only if it appears in official methodology documents, index-provider announcements, or other public statements issued directly by the institution and clearly designating EU-issued debt (including, but not limited to, NextGenerationEU bonds) as sovereign.
- If none of these providers adopt such a classification before the 1 January 2027, the market resolves NO.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027? resolve?
- EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market resolves YES if, at any time before 1 January 2027, any of the following index providers formally classifies European Union–issued debt as sovereign debt: