Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 25, 8:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
The market resolves YES if, at any time before 1 January 2027, any of the following index providers formally classifies European Union–issued debt as sovereign debt:
- Bloomberg Index Services Limited (including Bloomberg/Barclays fixed-income index classifications)
- FTSE Russell (including classifications relevant for the World Government Bond Index and related benchmarks)
- ICE Data Indices
- A classification counts only if it appears in official methodology documents, index-provider announcements, or other public statements issued directly by the institution and clearly designating EU-issued debt (including, but not limited to, NextGenerationEU bonds) as sovereign.
- If none of these providers adopt such a classification before the 1 January 2027, the market resolves NO.