Will the US' sovereign credit rating be downgraded again by Fitch, Moody's or S&P by the end of 2026?
One-OffMacro & EconomyBonds & Treasuries1mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 85%
No 85%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$798.4
Low liquidityTraders
9
Comments
1
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Rules
This Market asks whether any of the three leading agencies—Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Ratings, or S&P Global Ratings—will issue a further downgrade to the United States’ long‑term sovereign credit rating (long‑term foreign‑currency issuer rating) by December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC (the “Market Period”).
- Current benchmarks when this market was opened: Fitch: AA+ / Stable (affirmed Aug 22, 2025); Moody’s: Aa1 / Stable (downgraded May 16, 2025); S&P: AA+ / Stable (affirmed Aug 19, 2025).
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): the agencies’ official rating action publications (press releases, rating action notices, or issuer pages on their official websites) explicitly stating that the United States’ long‑term sovereign rating level is lowered.
- If any of the three agencies publishes such an action during the Market Period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- If none do, this market will resolve to "No".
- Clarifications:
