What are the current odds for Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61.7% as of October 26, 2026.

Paper trade this

Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin?

BitcoinOne-OffCrypto ETF Exchange US Politics3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 61.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 46 minutes ago

Lagging

Feb 6, 25, 8:21 PM UTCFeb 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC

Outcome24hChance

Rules

In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order initiating the creation of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, to be overseen by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

All three have publicly expressed positive views on Bitcoin.
This market resolves to "yes" if the fund holds Bitcoin—whether in cold storage, on an exchange, or via ETF shares—within one year of its creation.
It resolves to "N/A" if no such fund is established by February 2026, 12 months after the executive order.

Open markets

Bitcoin

KALSHI

BTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

$76,500 or above99%
$76,250 or above99%
$76,000 or above99%

+77 more outcomes

Total Vol: $614.1K
24h Vol: $611K

POLYMARKET

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

↑ 82,500-10.5pt51%
↓ 77,500+4.0pt47%
↑ 85,000-7.0pt19%

+37 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Bitcoin above ___ on October 26?

72,000+0.1pt100%
74,000+0.3pt100%
76,000+1.1pt100%

+8 more outcomes

KALSHI

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

75,000 to 79,999.99+1.5pt15.3%
80,000 to 84,999.99-0.6pt15.9%
85,000 to 89,999.99+0.5pt

KALSHI

BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

$69,000 or above-1.0pt98.5%
$71,000 or above+2.0pt98%
$72,000 or above+1.0pt

KALSHI

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

No98%
Yes2%

Total Vol: $13.3M
24h Vol: $211.1K

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61.7% as of October 26, 2026.
When does Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin? resolve?: Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2027.
How is Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order initiating the creation of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, to be overseen by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/manifold/will-the-us-sovereign-wealth-fund-h

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp

Data API docs Connect an agent

Will the US Sovereign Wealth Fund Hold Bitcoin?

Open markets

BTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Bitcoin above ___ on October 26?

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

Related Cryptos

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Open markets

BTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Bitcoin above ___ on October 26?

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?