Will Tesla's Q3 2026 automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits come in at 17.0% or higher?
FedQuarterlyCommoditiesTechTrade PolicyManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (98.1%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 10:53 PM
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Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market asks whether Tesla's core car business margin bounced back in Q3 2026 after falling to 16.3% in Q2 2026 (from 19.2% in Q1 2026, which included about $230M of one-time warranty and tariff benefits).
- Resolves YES if Tesla's official Q3 2026 Update (the shareholder deck posted at ir.tesla.com with its results, expected after market close on October 21, 2026) reports an automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits of 17.0% or higher.
- Resolves NO if the reported figure is below 17.0%.
- Details: - The figure used is the one Tesla itself reports, at the precision Tesla reports it (for example, 16.9% resolves NO and 17.0% resolves YES).
- No extra rounding. - If the deck does not state the figure directly, it will be calculated from Tesla's official Q3 2026 numbers (deck or Form 10-Q) as: (automotive gross profit minus automotive regulatory credits revenue) divided by (total automotive revenue minus automotive regulatory credits revenue), rounded to one decimal place. - Automotive gross margin including regulatory credits, total company gross margin, and any other margin metric do not count. - Later restatements are ignored.
- Only the figure as first published with the Q3 2026 results counts. - If Tesla delays its Q3 2026 results, this market's resolution deadline moves back accordingly and it stays open until the results are published.
