Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81.7%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 26, 1:44 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD?
Manifold MarketsWill the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US national debt reach $50 trillion by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketPeak US National Debt before 2027?
PolymarketAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the U.S. Treasury's reported Total Public Debt Outstanding reaches or exceeds $41,000,000,000,000 at any time through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Use the latest official value if Treasury later corrects a publication.
- Primary source: Treasury FiscalData — Debt to the Penny.
- The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+8.1pt100%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $322.6K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-31.5pt45%
- 4.85%-26.5pt40%
- 4.88%-26.0pt31%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+3.0pt77%
- Below 4.73%+6.5pt67%
- Below 4.70%+1.0pt51%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-1.6pt8%
- 3.5%-2.8pt5%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHISOFR for September 8, 2026
- 3.66% or Above32.7%
- Exactly 3.64%24%
- Exactly 3.65%23.1%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.8K
- 24h Vol
- $3.8K
KALSHI2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 4.23% or above99%
- 4.25% or above+1.0pt93%
- 4.21% or above-11.0pt86%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.1K
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 9, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027? resolve?
- Will US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the U.S. Treasury's reported Total Public Debt Outstanding reaches or exceeds $41,000,000,000,000 at any time through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.