KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
4.86% or above · —
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Stored price
4.94% or above 50%Market line of 15 lines
4.94% or above 50%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$19.3K
Open interest
$17.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
4.86% or aboveSpread
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Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingOct 30, 26, 7:30 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 8:30 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · 4.86% or above
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
30Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
Kalshi2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
Kalshi7Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
Kalshi10Y US Treasury yield on Nov 6, 2026?
KalshiWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 2, 2026, or one week following Nov 2, 2026.
Rules for each outcome
- 4.86% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.88% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.87% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.9% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.89% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.92% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.91% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.94% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.93% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.96% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4.98% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.97% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.02% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.01% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.04% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.03% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.06% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.05% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.08% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.07% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.1% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.09% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.12% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.11% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5.14% or above
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.13% on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.