Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.9%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 24, 26, 3:23 PM UTCAug 1, 27, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if China's Chang'e-7 lunar spacecraft launches from Earth by 11:59 PM China Standard Time on August 31, 2027.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- The launch counts once its launch vehicle lifts off with Chang'e-7 aboard, regardless of the mission's later outcome.
- Primary sources: the China National Space Administration and Xinhua.
- The market closes one month before the deadline and expected launch window.
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