Current community forecast
Yes 64.4%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleAug 17, 26, 7:08 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
[link preview]The company’s president, Gwynne Shotwell, has previously said the operational lifetime of the Falcon 9 may end in 2030 or 2032.
- However, more recently, commercial satellite customers have been running into difficulties when trying to purchase a launch after 2028.
- One source said SpaceX has told the US government that it intends to end commercial launches after 2028 but will continue flying the Falcon 9 rocket for a limited number of federally contracted missions after that.
- According to sources, SpaceX is planning to stop flying the Falcon 9 rocket for commercial launches after 2028.
- Will there be any commercial launches on the Falcon 9 rocket after 2028?
- Resolves YES if there is at least one commercial launch on a Falcon 9 rocket operated by SpaceX on or after January 1, 2029.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028? resolve?
- Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: [link preview]The company’s president, Gwynne Shotwell, has previously said the operational lifetime of the Falcon 9 may end in 2030 or 2032.