Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31?
One-OffPoliticsSpaceTechGeopoliticsMiddle EastEurope3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.9%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 26, 4:05 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if a United Nations body formally adopts a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapon systems by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Nonbinding appeals, expert meetings, working groups without a negotiating mandate, and negotiations outside the UN do not count.
- Source: United Nations.
- The market closes twelve hours before the deadline.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? resolve?
- Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a United Nations body formally adopts a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapon systems by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.