Will a UN body launch treaty negotiations on autonomous weapons by December 31?
One-OffPoliticsSpaceTechGeopoliticsMiddle EastEurope2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.9%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 26, 4:05 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if a United Nations body formally adopts a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument on autonomous weapon systems by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- Nonbinding appeals, expert meetings, working groups without a negotiating mandate, and negotiations outside the UN do not count.
- Source: United Nations.
- The market closes twelve hours before the deadline.
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