Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast20–24 31.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+25.3 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 27, 23, 11:19 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Human moon landing in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
This market resolves to the number of non-test rocket launches, intended to fly to space, that contribute (or are intended to contribute) to the first Artemis human moon landing mission mission (previously planned to be Artemis III), that are specific to the Artemis program.
- Other Artemis launches that deliver (or intend to deliver) equipment to lunar orbit or the lunar surface count, if that equipment is intended to be available for use in the first Artemis human moon landing mission (whether it is actually used or not).
- Previous Artemis launches that do not leave anything behind intended to be available for use in the first moon landing mission do not count.
- Launches that deliver general communications satellites to Earth orbit, that might be used during the moon landing mission do not count.
- That is, I am not going to count all of Starlink, or any other existing communications satellites, or any future communications satellite launches to Earth orbit, if they are general-purpose (even if their upgrade is prompted by the Artemis program, or anything like that).
- A launch to deliver a satellite to lunar orbit (or a halo orbit associated with an Earth-Moon Lagrange point) specifically as part of the Artemis program, however, will count (even if the satellite is somewhat general-purpose and may outlast the Artemis program) - if NASA or SpaceX or some other official partner in the Artemis program describes such a satellite as being part of the Artemis program, and as long as it is intended to be available for use in the first Artemis human moon landing mission, it will count.