Current implied probability
No 99%+0.1pt
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$117.9
Liquidity
$23.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
0.7% / 0.9%
Spread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
34
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 9:02 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many rocket launches will be needed for the first Artemis human moon-landing mission?
Manifold MarketsWho will manufacture the lander for the next manned moon landing?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Moon landing occur?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt90%
- OpenAI-1.7pt8%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $152.1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No87.7%
- Yes12.3%
- Total Vol
- $212.9K
- 24h Vol
- $124.9K
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 202766%
- 202626%
- September 30, 20268%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-8.0pt62.3%
- Above 9-40.0pt13.9%
- Above 10-11.0pt9.8%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic73.5%
- OpenAI+0.9pt17.6%
- Google-1.1pt5.9%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,47%
- June 30,41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- #3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Two SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
- Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Performers
- What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Human moon landing in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Human moon landing in 2026? resolve?
- Human moon landing in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Human moon landing in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.