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Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the Artemis program ?

TechOne-OffSpace4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 81%

Forecasters

16

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 51 minutes ago

Lagging

Aug 25, 26, 9:41 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, during the first crewed lunar surface landing of the Artemis program, at least one of the astronauts who descends to and physically sets foot on the Moon's surface is a woman.
This market resolves to NO if the first crewed lunar landing occurs and the landing crew—specifically those who physically set foot on the surface—is entirely male.
Rules and Edge Cases:
Only Surface Walkers Count: Resolution is based strictly on the astronauts who descend to and walk on the lunar surface.
Crew members who remain in lunar orbit (e.g., aboard the Orion spacecraft or Gateway) do not count.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the Artemis program ??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 9, 2026.
When does Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the Artemis program ? resolve?: Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the Artemis program ? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
How is Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the Artemis program ? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

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