Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 4:22 PM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
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PolymarketRules
To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.
- To resolve NO Artemis 3 must be canceled or rescoped to not include a moon landing.
- Landing failure resolves NO; any failure after an astronaut walks on the moon resolves YES.
- Launch vehicle, landing vehicle, and other details are irrelevant.
