Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 4:22 PM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
Manifold MarketsArtemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.
- To resolve NO Artemis 3 must be canceled or rescoped to not include a moon landing.
- Landing failure resolves NO; any failure after an astronaut walks on the moon resolves YES.
- Launch vehicle, landing vehicle, and other details are irrelevant.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? resolve?
- Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2035.
- How is Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To resolve YES the mission designated Artemis 3 must involve a human footstep on the moon.