Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70.2%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 22, 25, 5:53 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Scott Wiener is declared the official winner of the general election for California's 11th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
- Resolution will be based on the certified results published by the California Secretary of State.
- Scott Wiener is currently a Democratic member of the California State Senate, representing the 11th district, which includes San Francisco and parts of San Mateo County.
- He was first elected to the State Senate in 2016 and re-elected in 2020 and 2024.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70.2% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election? resolve?
- Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria