Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?
One-OffScienceSociety & Culture1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 31 minutes ago
Jun 16, 26, 5:20 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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PredictItRules
I am genuinely interested by the position that Prediction Markets take on strong theory (and related physics).
- I can look at the markets, which I would NOT bet on, and get a fairly genuine idea of "mainstream opinion", because when money is on the line people suddenly get a lot more timid about their opinions.
- So yes, any mention of PMs about string theory or Beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics by Sabine before Dec 31st 2027, in one of her videos, and this resolves to yes.
- I don't watch them all, so if there's a passing reference please someone post it in the comments.
- It has to be specifically a prediction markets - general scientific bets such as the Hawking-Thorne bet don't count.
- Either a mention or a full video, about eg Academic Prestige Futures Prediction Markets, would both count.
