Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / Ukraine
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 50.9%
Yes 50.9%Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Oct 16, 24, 11:20 AM UTCDec 31, 50, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
As of the creation of this market (16 Oct 2024), the list includes three countries: North Korea, Iran, and Myanmar.
- It resolves YES as soon as Russia is added.
- For example, if Russia is added to the FATF black list and then removed later, this resolves YES anyway.
- If Russia ceases to exist, I will judge based on the period when Russia did exist.
- I will use my best judgement to determine if a given country is Russia or not.
- For example, if Russia turns into many countries without a single clear successor, I will judge that Russia does not exist anymore, but if some national republics gain independence but otherwise Russia continues to exist (there is a clear single successor), I will judge that Russia still exists.
