Will Republicans lose the house in 2026 midterm elections?
PoliticsOne-Off2026 US MidtermsUS PoliticsElection1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Nov 3, 26, 2:57 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party wins fewer seats than the threshold required to maintain majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives (fewer than 218 seats in the standard 435-seat chamber), or if another party or coalition organizes the majority when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027.
- This market resolves to NO if the Republican Party retains majority control by winning at least 218 seats (or otherwise organizes the majority for the 120th Congress).
- Resolution will be determined primarily by official election results and consensus race calls by major news organizations (such as the Associated Press Decision Editor), or upon the official election of the Speaker of the House by a non-Republican majority for the 120th Congress.
- If control is delayed due to recounts or runoffs, resolution will wait until majority control of the chamber is definitively established.
- Midterm elections historically present headwinds for the sitting president's party in Congress.