Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 77%
Forecasters
127
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 23, 9:08 AM UTCDec 31, 99, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsHas NASA's Perseverance rover found traces of extraterrestrial life ?
Manifold MarketsWill a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
This question resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of any biological life having originated from any other planet.
- For instance, if dinosaurs or tardigrades are conclusively discovered to have originated from Mars, this question resolves YES.
- If alien bacterial life is found on other planets conclusively proven not to have originated from Earth, this resolves YES.
- If by 2100, none of these criteria have been fulfilled, this resolves NO.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? resolve?
- Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of any biological life having originated from any other planet.