Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
One-OffScience2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98%
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Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 23, 5:27 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.
- Resolves YES if such a proof is found before then.
- This would obviously likely be by an AI, but proofs from human mathematicians also count.
- I wanted a version of this question that resolves closer to within my apocalypse timeline, so I'll actually be forced to pay up [by my reckoning] if I'm wrong and Fermat goofed or was messing with us.
- I'll also be forced to pay up if people just don't turn a lot of compute toward answering this question, but I think this setup gives overall better incentives to short-timeline people.