Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
One-OffScience3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98%
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47
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 23, 5:27 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.
- Resolves YES if such a proof is found before then.
- This would obviously likely be by an AI, but proofs from human mathematicians also count.
- I wanted a version of this question that resolves closer to within my apocalypse timeline, so I'll actually be forced to pay up [by my reckoning] if I'm wrong and Fermat goofed or was messing with us.
- I'll also be forced to pay up if people just don't turn a lot of compute toward answering this question, but I think this setup gives overall better incentives to short-timeline people.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? resolve?
- Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found.