Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.3%
Forecasters
54
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 24, 11:55 AM UTCDec 29, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran use Nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsWill Poland acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Both nuclear sharing and own developement count as YES.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt82%
- New People (NL)-2.8pt17%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.2pt1%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.2M
- 24h Vol
- $2.6M
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Total Vol
- $67M
- 24h Vol
- $334.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt57.1%
- October 31-1.0pt31.4%
- September 30-3.0pt9.5%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt19%
- October 31-1.0pt10%
- September 30-1.3pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+2.5pt95%
- September 25+43.0pt85%
- September 30+1.5pt71%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No+0.7pt96%
- Yes-0.7pt4%
- Total Vol
- $42.3M
- 24h Vol
- $110.3K
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 18, 2026.
- When does Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 29, 2027.
- How is Will Poland get nuclear weapons by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Both nuclear sharing and own developement count as YES.