Will Peter Thiel ever be a candidate for President of the United States?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection5y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 94.1%
Forecasters
63
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 30, 22, 1:59 AM UTCAug 6, 32, 3:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Thiel announces and files paperwork launching a formal campaign for the White House.
