Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 3:42 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if humans successfully fly to the Moon (i.e., travel to lunar orbit or land on the lunar surface) before January 1, 2040.
- This includes crewed missions that orbit the Moon or land on it.
- Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from space agencies (NASA, ESA, CNSA, etc.) or credible news reports from major outlets covering the mission.
- Artemis II is the first crewed mission to the vicinity of the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972.
- Launch is scheduled for no earlier than February 5, 2026, with the 10-day mission carrying four astronauts on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth.
