Before 2028
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 55.5%
No 55.5%Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$268.8
Open interest
$2.5K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 22, 26, 7:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic commits shares to Trump Accounts by November 30?
Polymarket1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump Accounts be expanded to include Americans under 40 years old by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump nationalize SpaceX?
KalshiWill Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The New York TimesAPBloombergReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states Elon Musk depositing SpaceX shares into the Trump Accounts of at least 10 million children occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. This requires that SpaceX shares contributed by Elon Musk have been credited to the Trump Accounts of at least 10,000,000 children, with each of those accounts receiving at least one share. Deposits made in more than one round count together toward the 10,000,000. A Source Agency report that Musk's shares have been deposited into every eligible Trump Account, or into a group of accounts it puts at 10,000,000 or more, is sufficient. Shares contributed by Elon Musk include shares given by any foundation, trust, or other entity he controls, or routed through any charity or intermediary, when the gift is part of his October 19, 2026 pledge or a Source Agency credits it to him. A Trump Account is an account established under Section 530A of the Internal Revenue Code, under any name, including an account opened automatically by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. If SpaceX merges with or is acquired by another company, is renamed, or otherwise reorganizes, shares of the company into which SpaceX shares were converted or exchanged count as SpaceX shares. One share means one share as adjusted for any stock split, reverse split, or stock dividend after Oct 19, 2026. The following do NOT count: A pledge, announcement, commitment, or agreement to deposit shares, or a transfer of shares to the Treasury or another intermediary, before the shares are credited to the children's accounts Cash, or any payment equal to the value of a share, in place of SpaceX shares SpaceX shares contributed by anyone other than Elon Musk, including the gift pledged by Gwynne Shotwell and her husband
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.