Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
GeopoliticsOne-Off
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.6%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 21, 23, 12:35 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to nuclear weapons.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/
