Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 97%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 31, 26, 1:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nevada Question 7 (Require Voter Identification) pass in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Virginia Question 1 (right to reproductive freedom) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiTexas Senate winner?
KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketRules
In 2024, Question 6 was approved 64% to 36%.
- It must pass again in 2026 to become law.
- Resolves YES if it receives more votes in favor than against in the November 2026 general election according to Nevada Secretary of State's final certified results.
- Resolves based on vote counts only, not legal implementation.
- If removed from ballot before election day, resolves NO.