Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 18, 26, 10:34 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Nectome is a human brain preservation company based in Oregon.
- They recently announced that they are beginning pre-sales and will soon be accepting patients.
- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead
- This market resolves YES iff they credibly claim to have preserved a human brain as part of their commercial offerings by Dec 30, 2027.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Nectome is a human brain preservation company based in Oregon.