Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.7%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingApr 14, 26, 6:05 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill Nectome have at least ten preserved humans by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRules
Nectome is a human brain preservation company based in Oregon.
- They recently announced that they are beginning pre-sales and will soon be accepting patients.
- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead
- This market resolves YES iff they credibly claim to have preserved at least one hundred human brain as part of their commercial offerings by Dec 30, 2030.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/MaxHarms/will-nectome-preserve-at-least-one)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MaxHarms/will-nectome-have-at-least-ten-pres)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MaxHarms/will-nectome-perform-1000-brain-pre-NLEAPP8EzA)
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Nectome is a human brain preservation company based in Oregon.