Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
One-OffScience13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 18, 26, 11:01 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 1% of young men ages 25-35 in any of the following Western countries die during a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Human brain preservation company Nectome is looking to start accepting patients soon.
- Its founder, Aurelia Song claimed: "I think we will be getting to thousands of preservations per year in a few years"
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=HqWWna92bECLJDiCQ)
- "I think Nectome's business case is very strong and that preservation is going to become a new global tradition soon. ... [Within the next decade] I think 0.1% - 1% of people will seriously consider preservation, and Nectome will be very successful."
- (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E9xfgJHvs6M55kABD/less-dead?commentId=qKDXYFwovwmxdr4Kk)
- This market resolves YES iff Nectome preserves over a thousand patients in a single calendar year.