Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?
One-OffCommodities4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.7%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 6:23 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2030.
- YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026–2030 NO if: No manufacturer reaches 1 GW annual threshold by Dec 31, 2030.
- Research modules, pilots, or indoor PV without bankable warranties do not count.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- NREL / IEA photovoltaic deployment tracking
- LONGi, Oxford PV commercial shipment announcements
