Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
WeatherOne-OffTrade PolicyMacro & EconomyRegulation11mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.2%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 11, 24, 3:53 AM UTCOct 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Jigar Shah, director of the DOE Loan Programs Office in the US, claimed on August 8, 2024 that "we expect to produce 80% of the modules we use in this country by 2026."
- https://x.com/JigarShahDC/status/1821539692614918542
- This market will resolve "true" if in the Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report for 2026, published in August/September 2027, the peak kilowatt total of solar modules manufactured in the US is at least 80 percent of the peak kilowatt total of modules either imported to the US or manufactured in the US and sold domestically.
- It will resolve "false" if US manufacturing falls short of US purchases for the year 2026.
- https://www.eia.gov/renewable/annual/solar_photo/
- Note that "true" resolution requires only that US manufacturing be sufficient to meet 80 percent of US demand, not that that actually be where 80 percent of US-deployed modules comes from.
