Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
WeatherOne-OffTrade PolicyMacro & EconomyManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Aug 31, 23, 5:01 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Rising global temperatures over the past few decades have caused a significant reduction in arctic sea ice, so much so that as soon as the next decade, the Arctic may well be ice free during the summer.
- Though there is much alarm being raised about that, there is also interest in opening up the Arctic sea routes to commercial traffic via initiatives such as the Polar Silk Road.
- But, how much seaborne traffic is it likely to contribute by 2050?
- Will resolve as "Yes" if by 2050 more than 20% of all transoceanic freight is routed through the Arctic.
- Else it will resolve "No".
