Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 6:19 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
No 100%
No 100%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownTraders
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Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Rules
This market resolves on whether the Arctic sea ice minimum extent in 2027, which is usually reached in September, is lower than the 2026 minimum, as shown on NASA's Arctic sea ice vital signs page (NSIDC data).
- NASA and NSIDC reported the 2026 minimum on September 12, 2026.
- FULL DETAILS
- If the annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent for 2027, as displayed by NASA on its Arctic Sea Ice vital signs page, is lower than the annual minimum shown there for 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Only the 2027 and 2026 annual minimums count; daily or monthly values and other years are not taken into account.
- The Primary Designated Source is NASA's Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent vital sign (climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice), based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) satellite data.
