Current community forecast
Yes 57.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 6:23 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the annual average strength of the AMOC fall below 8 Sverdrups for any calendar year through 2030?
ForecastExUS solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiWill Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2028.
- YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW of commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (with bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026, 2027, or 2028 NO if: No manufacturer reaches the 1 GW annual shipment threshold by Dec 31, 2028.
- Research modules, BIPV pilot projects, or indoor PV products without bankable warranties do not count.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- NREL / IEA photovoltaic power systems deployment tracking
- LONGi, Oxford PV, Saule Technologies commercial shipment announcements
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028? resolve?
- Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2028.