Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]
WeatherOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.9%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 23, 3:05 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
"Solar geoengineering" as defined by the IPCC includes any/all forms of solar radiation management (SRM), most notably stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) but also cirrus cloud thinning or orbital mirror deployment (lol).
- Notably, this does not include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as direct-air capture (DAC), biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS), enhanced weathering (EWR), ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), or other techniques that simply reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
- The IPCC definition of solar geoengineering also (somewhat contentiously) does not include surface albedo enhancement (e.g. painting rooftops white).
- "Significant scale" here is somewhat arbitrarily defined as having an estimated net decrease in radiative forcing of at least 1 W/m2 for at least one month (about a ~0.4% increase in planetary albedo).
- This would correspond to a net sulfur injection of about 5 Mt/y for the most commonly discussed SAI technique -- about 0.25 Pinatubos per year.
- I will not bet in this market.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
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+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
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- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] resolve?
- Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "Solar geoengineering" as defined by the IPCC includes any/all forms of solar radiation management (SRM), most notably stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) but also cirrus cloud thinning or orbital mirror deployment (lol).