Will Nate Silver be right about the House? [231-251 seats]

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Nate Silver be right about the House? [231-251 seats]?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59.6% as of November 4, 2026.

When does Will Nate Silver be right about the House? [231-251 seats] resolve?

Will Nate Silver be right about the House? [231-251 seats] is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.

How is Will Nate Silver be right about the House? [231-251 seats] settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if Nate's prediction the day before the election of 241 seats is right plus/minus 10. 231-251 seats.

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KALSHI

Who will control the House?

• Democratic Party+5.8pt99.3%
• Republican Party-6.0pt0.8%

Total Vol

$147.5M

24h Vol

$40.7M

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico+22.6pt94.5%
• Ken Paxton-22.5pt5.5%

Total Vol

$113.6M

24h Vol

$34.9M

KALSHI

Florida Governor winner?

• Byron Donalds+30.3pt95%
• David Jolly-31.6pt4.5%

Total Vol

$40.4M

24h Vol

$28M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep+22.7pt96.8%
• D-House, R-Senate-17.8pt2.3%
• Republicans sweep-5.7pt

KALSHI

Who will control the Senate?

• Democratic Party+22.8pt96.8%
• Republican Party-23.1pt3.6%

Total Vol

$54.7M

24h Vol

$22.8M

KALSHI

Texas Governor winner?

• Gina Hinojosa+44.0pt82.5%
• Greg Abbott-42.0pt18.5%

Total Vol

$46.3M

24h Vol

$20.4M

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