Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?
Middle EastOne-OffEuropePolitics5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 6:33 PM UTCFeb 28, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market is based on the statements by Merz seen on Channel 4 News on X
- This market has reduced criteria compared to Merz's statement:
- 33% (instead of 80%) over 3 years and a reduced time frame for faster market resolution.
- Two months are added since official numbers might come out later than 1.Jan 2027
- 900_000 / 3 / 3 years = 100_000 yr⁻¹
- Resolution criteria
Open markets
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- Yes-0.1pt2%
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- Yes-0.1pt0%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027? resolve?
- Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2027.
- How is Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is based on the statements by Merz seen on Channel 4 News on X