Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 4, 26, 4:42 AM UTCAug 4, 36, 4:42 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mitch McConnell outlive Ben Sasse?
Manifold MarketsWill Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?
KalshiWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Neal Dunn dies before Mitch McConnell.
- This market resolves to NO if Mitch McConnell dies before Neal Dunn.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by official announcements of death reported by major reputable news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).
- Same-Day Deaths: If both individuals die on the same calendar day, the market will resolve based on the official time of death.
- If the precise sequence of deaths cannot be verified from official reports, the market will resolve to 50%.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn? resolve?
- Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn? is scheduled to resolve on August 4, 2036.
- How is Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria